American Intelligence Test: Getting Over the Wall May Depend on Which Side You’re On

President Trump directed the construction of the “Wall” between the US and Mexico by signing an executive order on Jan 25, 2017. While he ‘promised’ during the campaign that he would have Mexico pay for it, and he maintains that he will still have Mexico pay (or reimburse) for the Wall at some time in the future, his executive order does not and can’t deliver on that ‘promise’ since that isn’t accomplished via an executive order. Thus, the American taxpayer is on the hook for the cost until an actual means is defined and implemented to have Mexico pay/reimburse and the ‘promise’ is fulfilled. At some point the ‘laws of physics’, principles of economics, and bilateral actions will produce the ultimate results.

This presents an opportunity for an intelligence test related to the concept of ‘who pays for the Wall’. So, if you are ready to confront this barrier, get ready to climb.

Question A:   Is there a Wall on the border between the US and Mexico?
                 Choose any that apply.

(1). No

(2). Yes

(3). Yes, there are fences in places but not everywhere

(4). Yes, there are walls in some places but not everywhere

(5). Yes, there are virtual fences/walls in some places

(6). Yes, there are geological barriers in some places that are wall-equivalents

(7). Yes, but there are places where there is no wall, virtual wall, or wall-equivalent

Answer - A:  3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Rationale -A:       The last five choices characterize the current reality of the border wall.

Thus 2 is true but lacks specificity, and provides an opportunity for confusion and disagreement.

Item 1 is only true if your definition of a Wall is a continuous barrier from coast to coast.

Question B:   What does building the Wall mean has to be done by the Government?
Select each that applies.

(1). Build a physical wall along the border from the Gulf coast to the Pacific coast.

(2). Develop a plan for where a wall, a fence, a virtual ‘wall’, or the terrain is an acceptable barrier; and then build the designated structure were defined.

(3). Complete the plan that was approved in 2006 under Pres. G.W. Bush.

(4). Answer 2, plus upgrading and reinforcing parts of the existing wall to increase its local effectiveness.

(5). Provide the funding for the construction.

Answer - B:  2, 4, 5

Rationale -B:       Items 2, 4 and 5 are what it takes to undertake building the ‘promised’ Wall, and thus this is what the Government would have to do.

Item 1 is what many people think is required or what will happen, but the definition of the Wall isn’t as simple as that understanding.

Item 3 does not include the extension of the Wall nor its upgrades or re-enforcements.

Question C:   Does Mexico have to agree to pay for the Wall?

(1). Yes

(2). No

(3). It depends upon what you think it means by getting Mexico to ‘pay for’ the Wall.

Answer - C:  3

Rationale -C:       Item 3 is the most appropriate answer as of the creation of this test question. Certainly, for Mexico to provide the funds to the US or to pay the bills for the construction, Mexico would have to agree. However, if the US can define a method that shows that there is a balance-sheet assessment that demonstrates that a redirection of US funds that would have gone to Mexico are reduced by the cost of the Wall and a proper accounting of any other cross-border trade settlements/imbalances/off-sets that are impacted by the redirected funds then Mexico doesn’t have to agree for the Wall’s funds to be accounted for. This accounting approach is highly complicated and excessively vulnerable and prone to error, abuse, and political manipulation (lies).

Question D:   Does Congress have to approve building the Wall?

(1). Yes

(2). No

(3). If the US pays for it then yes Congress will need to approve and provide the funding.

Answer - D:  3

Rationale -D:       Item 3 is correct in that it sets the conditional requirement that if US funding is required then Congress will have to provide the funding and approve the legislation that extends the authorization to expand the Wall to be built.

Question E:    How might the US unilaterally impose a cost for the Wall on Mexico?
Select each that might be used.

(1). Withhold any foreign aid to Mexico up to the cost of the Wall

(2). charge a tax on remittances sent from the US to Mexico

(3). trade agreement (NAFTA) re-negotiations that provide a Wall payment mechanism(s)

(4). visa fees for Mexican citizens applying to enter the US

(5). Tariff on goods to Mexico (either on everything or on selective items)

(6). Tariff on goods from Mexico (either on everything or on selective items)

Answer - E:  All these items are options that might be used, either individually or in combinations.

Rationale -E:       Any of these items and others that might be identified are possible strategies that could provide a method to collect funds that are then allocated to pay for the Wall. This does not mean that there are no consequences or impacts from applying one or more of these strategies that would need to be factored into whether the US taxpayers, consumers, or businesses are actually incurring the costs indirectly by second-order, third-order, or n-order processes. The simplest example of this is that a tariff on goods from Mexico into the US would collect funds for the Wall but those funds are paid for by businesses and consumers. Those same tariffs will of necessity affect the economics of trade on both sides of the border and in addition to the costs to the businesses and consumers for the good’s tariff, there may be additional costs incurred or additional losses to the US economy. The question is not can you count funds from the tariff, but can you account for all the impacts within the US economy.

Question F:    If the US imposes a unilateral charge/fee/tax/cost on Mexico, how might Mexico respond?

(1). Mexico may respond in kind. Trade is never one-way street.

(2). Mexico might decide to pay for the ‘Wall’.

(3). Mexico may do nothing.

(4). Mexico may agree to renegotiate NAFTA and gain a better deal on other terms and conditions so that they can agree to making it look like they agreed to pay for the Wall.

(5). Mexico may profit from the Wall being built and getting sufficient incremental income from the US to pay for the Wall and still come out ahead.

(6). Mexico may seek a better trade agreement with another nation that increases economic risk to the US’s economy.

Answer - F:  All these items are options that might be used, either individually or in combinations that are not self-contradictions in combination.

Rationale -F:        The relevance of this question is that Mexico is not without its own options in dealing with any US action. The very essence of trade is that it is between two (or sometimes more) parties. It occurs when both reach an agreement that the exchange is viewed as an exchange of equal value or that each side views the value received as acceptable.

Question G:   Which of the following consequences to a unilateral US action are possible regardless of what Mexico might do?
Choose any that could result?

(1). American taxpayers may wind up paying for the Wall directly.

(2). American taxpayers may wind up paying for the Wall indirectly.

(3). Net jobs in the US increase.

(4). Net jobs in the US decrease.

(5). Third party nations may seek to benefit from US unilateral actions by using any increased cost created to provide an alternative sourcing solution.

(6). An escalating trade war between the US and Mexico shifts which groups in each country benefit or suffer, but overall both economies are negatively impacted.

(7). US companies incur additional costs that they pass along to their customers.

(8). The “law of unintended” consequences introduces effects that were not anticipated and both the US and Mexico are worse off than before the US action.

Answer - G:  All these are possibilities, and there are likely many other consequences that could result. In addition, any number of these results could happen together.

Rationale -G:       This doesn’t even consider the effects of actions taken by Mexico. So the ‘End of the Day’ consequences and what results from this trade issue is a complex question. The ability to state what will happen is high risk, and the outcome is not guaranteed.

This leads to the critical importance of having as competent and informed understanding of the total economic problem space that this issue resides within. To the degree that you understand that problem space, and the economic principles and ‘laws of physics’ that produce different outcomes then you can seek solutions that offer reasonable probabilities of achieving the goals that you are seeking. Of course, the answer may be that there is no one answer there are just a variety of policies that have their own pros and cons. There is also the issue of an answer that’s good for a couple years and bad after that, or vice versa. The right answer is not ‘knowable’ but whatever answer you go with ought to be well-defined in terms of benefits and costs and have a verifiable measurements methodology to validate that you did the right thing and don’t need to change course.

Question H:   Which of the following does the Wall guarantee?
Select each that applies.

(1). Illegal immigration via Mexico will be dramatically reduced.

(2). Drug trafficking cross-border will be reduced.

(3). Human trafficking cross-border will be reduced.

(4). Terrorists entering the US via Mexico will be stopped.

(5). US jobs lost to Mexico will be restored to the US.

(6). The federal government will claim success regardless of outcome.

Answer - H:  None of them are guaranteed.

Rationale -H:       These are stated reasons for what the Wall will accomplish. Whether these goals are accomplished or not would depend upon many factors. To determine if each goal is met, a well-defined base-line would be required to compare against, relevant data would have to be collected and a meaningful analysis would have to show the expected result or an unexpected one.

Question I:      How will the accounting of the Wall being a success be determined?

(1). By fiat (the government will just say it was).

(2). There is no requirement for providing data that verifies success, and it is highly unlikely that it will be done.

(3). If the economy continues to expand then that growth will be attributed to the ‘Wall’.

(4). If the economy contracts and jobs are lost, then the decline will be claimed as lessened by the ‘Wall’ or that the job losses would have been worse.

(5). The number of undocumented immigrants in the country will be lower.

(6). At this time, there isn’t a stated method to demonstrate success.

Answer - I:  6

Rationale -I:         Item 6 most closely characterizes the current situation. The decision to build the Wall has assumed results but as the saying goes: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”

Items 1 or 2 are likely as they don’t require accountability.

Items 3 or 4 would be a usual political party explanation.

Item 5 doesn’t necessarily have to be a consequence of the Wall, and could just be a coincident.

Question J:    Once the Wall is built, are there any counter-measures that might be used to pass the barrier? Select items that could be used to get passed the Wall.

(1). Tunnels

(2). Aerial means: gliders, balloons, cranes

(3). Ladders

(4). Wire-cutters

(5). Explosives to breech a section of the Wall

(6). Vehicles to breech (via crashing) the Wall

(7). Boat

(8). Bribery

Answer - J:  All of these items could enable a wall to be overcome.

Rationale -J:        The history of Walls indicates that a wall is a barrier, but barriers are just another problem that can be solved. The Wall will be a continuing effort to not must maintain it, but to react to every attempt to breech, and to adapt to every instance that succeeds in pass the barrier.