Monday, May 17, 2021

The Guinea Pig Conundrum - A COVID Parable

 


Once upon a time, there was a country that was inundated by a plague. The plague was like any plague, it overwhelmed the population and disrupted everything about their lives, except one thing. The people of that country were perpetually at odds with each other over every issue or choice. So, it is not surprising that when the plague swept in, its citizens found a way to divide over the plague itself. The plague did not care, it spread on.

It is unclear why it made any sense to choose sides about the plague, but that is what they did. Perhaps it was simply the fact that they were so divided over everything else that they could not accept the fact that a plague wasn’t a choice, or political viewpoint, or that the plague was not going to care about even one of them let alone whichever side they chose. Nonetheless, the people chose their side and fought over that choice with each other. The plague did not care, it spread on.

When the physicians of the country developed a way to protect the citizens from the plague, even that became an issue over which the population divided. One side chose to follow the physicians by getting the vaccine that protected you; while the other side proffered a variety of reasons why that was not necessary or safe to do. The scientific community of the country mostly sided with the physicians advocating for people to get the vaccine, but there were some physicians (though a minority) and some in the scientific community, again a minority, which supported those opposing the vaccine choice. The plague did not care, it spread on.

The civil leaders went to the experts, scholars and what constituted reputable leaders (so, not politicians) to ask them what the country could do to bring the people together and work to bring the plague to an end. The consensus view was to diligently promote the reasons and benefits that getting the vaccine provides everyone and make the country safe and able to return to “normal.” This messaging was endorsed and promoted, but still the division persisted and there was a counter-messaging from those who opposed the vaccination messaging. The country continued to fight over the public policies. The plague did not care, it spread on.

As the two sides fought over their positions and their choices, the politicians also fought over the plague. The plague did not care, it spread on. The “experts” on this or that aspect of the plague continued to fight over every issue that arose as the country’s medical systems addressed and cared for those impacted by the plague as best as they could. The plague did not care, it spread on.

The news media and social-media provided information that supported the views that reflected the information, interviews, and reports that each side promoted on its views. Even religious entities became entangled with this division. Some chose one side; some chose the other. When those on the side that did not want to be vaccinated were asked why not, they gave their various reasons. One of the reasons given was: “I am not going to be a Guinea pig for the vaccine. You can be a Guinea pig if you want.”  The plague did not care, it spread on.

The country even held an election for its leaders during the plague; and of course, the election just like everything else pitted those on one side against those on the other regarding the plague. New leaders were elected. The Plague did not care, it spread on.

As those who supported the physicians’ guidance to get vaccinated got vaccinated the divide persisted. But as the number of citizens vaccinated increased the plague still did not care; but it did spread less rapidly, almost as if it cared. But soon the divide reasserted its impacts on the population. Those deciding not to get vaccinated began to represent most of those left in the country unvaccinated. This enabled the plague to continue to find available hosts to infect and while the plague did not know this, it did not care and it spread on, just more slowly.

The conflict persisted. One day a group of friends were discussing the dilemma over the plague and discussing the difficulty in addressing all the points of dispute and contention about being on the vaccinated or the unvaccinated side of the plague issue. One of the friends stated that it appeared that there did not seem to be any solution to the problem; and that the country would just have to suffer through the plague until the population reached the end. That is, reached the critical point where the plague either burned itself out or became a low-level background problem that could be accepted by the country. It was at this point where one of the friends noted, that does not mean that the country will not also obtain some benefits from the plague. The conversation came to a sudden and complete stop. Everyone turned and looked at the speaker. The plague did not care, it spread on.

“How can you think that?” exclaimed the group. “That is a horrible thing to say! People are suffering and dying.” The plague did not care, it spread on.

“Yes, replied the speaker. The situation is horrible, and we should have compassion and regard for those victims of the plague who suffered, died and those affected by those outcomes. But much of that was a consequence of our choices and of the divide over something that did not and does not care about which side anyone picked.

Consider those who claim that people who choose are just being Guinea pig for the vaccine. They are looking at that choice as if they are not also Guinea pigs. For any good experiment, which is what we have here between those on the vaccinate side and those on the do not vaccinate side, there needs to be two test groups. Two sets of Guinea pigs. Each of us has chosen to be either a Test Guinea pig or a Control Guinea pig. As the experiment runs (the plague continues) we learn the results of this grand experiment. Some of what we will learn will be very specific to which choice provided the better overall outcomes for one group over the other. These learnings can be beneficial to our collective future no matter which side you chose to be on. These lessons do not change the suffering or deaths incurred but it does not diminish the value in the knowledge gained.

Then there are other implications of the choice each group has made. How these different outcomes are viewed and assessed is just another level of how those different outcomes produce changes in areas that no one thinks of when they make their individual choice on which side they are going to be on. Who thinks about how the aggregate choices in a community will impact the community? Do communities that are mostly vaccinated have different outcomes and consequences from their choices than communities that are mostly unvaccinated? If two communities were virtually identical before the plague, but went down different paths; would they be affected identically once the plague passes?

When we look at the entire country and how conditions, situations, and outcomes; what might have changed that was unexpected, or unintended, or not desired but which produces some advantageous new realities. The terrible costs that those advantages may have levied is not worth the benefits but then those costs were incurred because of choices made. Choices that were not made with any knowledge of, insight into, or intention to gain some eventual benefits because of what happened.”

The group of friends were shocked that someone could talk about “benefits” that would come from the plague; and they expressed their horror that their friend to even say such things. The plague did not care, it spread on. The speaker however showed no signs of regret, remorse, or shame. He turned to his friends and asked, “What would you do to stop those outcomes given we have done far too little to deal with the plague and its affects?” No one in the group had an answer. The plague did not care, it spread on.

A friend finally asked, “What could possibly be such a benefit from all this harm?”

The speaker paused, took a breath, and then replied: “Even though you will likely think me callous and unfeeling, I am thinking about what happens after all that the plague will do has occurred. So, I am not advocating that it ought to occur but that we, our country, has chosen to do only what it has done and we will have paid the price for those choices. Given all that, go think about what will have happened to the following:

  • What will have changed regarding Social Security? There are several things that will have changed. Does no one benefit?
  • What will have changed about the country’s political parties? Are there no changes that impact the influence or control of one in comparison to the other? What if you just counted members?
  • What might employees learn about their actual power relationship with employers be regarding their value to businesses?

If you can not think of one or two other things than that might explain why they have not been considered or recognized as impacts of the plague. That doesn’t mean they don’t exist, just that they are not understood; yet!” The plague did not care, it spread on.

At this point the speaker stood up and left his friends to contemplate his disturbing views. They began to fight over what he had said and chose sides over who was right and who was not.

The plague did not care, it spread on.

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