The problem with having a presumptive candidate is that
because of her support within the Party there is a ‘barrier to entry’ that any
other prospective candidate is required to surmount to contest the presumption.
Along with the presumption come many benefits that the candidate accrues that
just fortify the rampart against any challenger. Benefits like wealthy contributors who want to
be in with the nominee should they win.
Now there are also disadvantages that a presumptive
candidate receives, so it’s not a win-win situation but it is a highly probable
nominee win situation, particularly if no actual challenger surfaces. Overall
however, the presumptive candidate achieves the first step in the critical path
to the White House with little to no effort. This effortless step brings with
it some disadvantages for the steps that follow. The candidate doesn’t receive
the experience of confronting an opponent’s views, policies, and positions that
will allow them to hone their message or adjust their position to the ‘conditions
on the ground’ that their campaign will have to deal with during the
competitive race against the Republican nominee. The candidate is a target
early but exists in that political space where they are effectively only able
to campaign for support without the opportunities to rack up any wins against
an opponent. They won’t receive the same level of media coverage or attention
until there is one Republican candidate that they are identified as competing
against. Each and any response to the many Republican candidates running serves
those candidates’ interests and dilutes the focus on the Democratic message.
Such reactions also represent occasions
where the presumptive candidate creates vulnerabilities via their response that
get exploited from both the many-to-one voices situation and the prolonged
interval during which they are the clear and definitive target. Perhaps the
greatest disadvantage is that without the competition of ideas in a campaign
the opportunity to seize better plans, policies and positions is reduce or even
eliminated since there is no occasion where those new ideas are given an
advocating voice.
To alleviate these negative conditions, the Democratic Party
(or any Party) should seek or even require that two candidates actively run for
the nomination. Such a process would provide the Party with the advantages and
opportunities to have issues and positions established resonate with the
current political environment and that are tested under the trial-by-fire
conditions that those items will face in the general election. It insures a
campaign focus and attention from the media and the public, even those outside
the Party’s core, that will produce more consideration of the issues that are
and will be substantive to the public and in the campaigns.
This required competition will also produce the selection of
a nominee that will have better prospects for winning in the general election
on the basis that if you can win your Party’s nomination with competition than
you are the better candidate versus if you are anointed as the nominee because
no one tested your abilities to actually win.
It’s unlikely that this approach would be adopted by any
Party however since it run directly against the immediate and primary interests
of a presumptive candidate and their supporters. It’s the political tendency to act on the
premise of self-first and other-entities no higher than second.
