Making Things The Way They Were. A Physics Problem

The Brexit decision is being showcased as a premonition of the American election, and there is no doubt that there are factors and variables that come into play in both. But sharing some or all of the variables doesn’t mean that they are the same, or even close, with respect to how those factors create the end-resulting conditions of ‘reality’. In fact, in order for anyone to posit that the degree to which these factors and outcomes are the same would imply that the values of the variables are essentially the same.  This assumes that the two ‘equations’ comprising these factors are the same, or the expectation of a common outcome is even more ludicrous.  If there were just two or three factors of significance, then attempting to quantify and compare them and the resulting ‘reality’ would be a reasonable assessment of how similar are the two results? Even if there are dozens or hundreds of variables but only two or three that dominate the equation then the other factors don’t matter much anyway. So whether the Brexit situation and America’s 2016 political election are equivalent would depend upon an understanding of the factors that they share, the factors that they don’t share, and the overall culmination of what results from them.

Perhaps it would be worthwhile to enumerate some of the factors that we hear are what Brexit and the American election share. The news and media (I do not equate the two as the same) have been presenting a couple of ‘reasons’, which I will re-term ‘factors’, that were substantive to the British voters in their decisions. The short-list would include:

Sovereignty:      The UK voters want to run their own nation without the influence and constraints of the other EU nations, and particularly the EU bureaucracy. The commonality of this sentiment with an American counterpart is at best crude or requires a significant bit of contortions. But hey, let’s see how far one might be able to ‘stretch’ rationality.  Perhaps this is akin to the “states versus federal” authority issue, or the “local” versus “a DC government department”, or it may just be the “Us versus Them” mentality that pervades our political parties or those seeking an ‘easy’ answer to all their problems. I think that there is an emotional context that applies between the UK and the US along these lines, but an emotional appeal isn’t an actual connection or comparable situation that would relate to the having the same origins, the same impacts, or producing or being addressed by some common approach to government or social environment. One big difference between the US and the UK is that the US is and has been a sovereign nation since its inception.  So regaining a ‘sovereign’ government and social approach is somewhat of a contradiction with the situation that Britain’s voters were seeking via exiting the EU. So the emotions may be more a shared factor but the logic and reality would be quite questionable. This means that it will be a factor in the US election but hopefully there is more than just the ‘feel-good’ act without any substantive purpose; because there are cause and effect consequences to an act regardless of whether you understood what they would be or not.

 “The Economy”: British voters were also motived by a slumping, stagnant and unequal economy. Yes, just like in the US (and in most/all other nations) the recovery from the last economic crisis that toppled the unstable and irrational financial monstrosities that we, them, and everyone else created and participated in; the UK voters were unhappy, unsatisfied and mostly angry about the economic reality that they are experiencing now and for several years. The economy in the US has been slow in recovering. The economy in the UK, and in the EU, and in the rest of the world has also been experiencing slow, no, or other degrees of recovery/non-recovery; but while they share some causal factors (like the financial mortgage-debt crisis), there are numerous other factors that they do not. The EU countries did not and do not operate in as cohesive a manner as their counterparts in the US do. [You have to accept for argument sake that our states are the counterparts to the EU nations, or it’s really hard to equate some of the economic factors involved in the UK/UE environment to the US’s economic environment.]

The UK voters it would appear think that they would be better off if they were not part of the EU because of either advantages in being ‘independently’ able to manage their economic relationships both internally and externally, or in not being subject to the actions and consequences of the other EU nations. Equating this to where the US is today would seem to be more of the UK wants to become like the US which has its own independent control over it economic decisions. So it would seem hard to argue that what UK voters want isn’t the same thing that US voters are seeking even though both are unhappy with the current economic climates in their respective countries.

It’s possible I suppose that there are more factors involved in any (or all) nation’s economic reality; but how likely is it that factors like Trade, Resources, Technology, Competition, Education, Infrastructure, Investment, or Taxes have any relationship to a country’s, a union’s, or the world’s economy? Oh, yeah! An economy is influenced by more than the style of government a nation follows, or even the ‘who’ provides the leadership of a government. So the Brexit decision and the US’s upcoming election not only won’t be, but can’t, address or resolve via as simple-minded an approach as the economy can be solely dealt with by who runs the government (sovereign, union, or pick-your-favorite-descriptor).

The economy may be voted on like the Brexit case, but are we sure that that was based on reason or on emotion? And regardless of what prompts the vote, the situational realities are not the same.

Jobs and Trade: Brexit is supposedly going to improve the job situation and the trade situation in the UK. Well, that’s a position that was argued by one side, but many people on the other side argued exactly the opposite. Which one was right? Well, both and neither. Leaving the EU will change things, so some will be good, and some will be bad, and some won’t change much at all; but what the end-result is only time, leadership, investment, trade, competition, technology, and you-know a few other things will tell.

There should also be a consideration, a recognition actually, that the concept of ‘returning’ jobs is premised that ‘restoring’ the jobs of before (of the past) is practical, reasoned and even desirable. The objective is a ‘nice to want’ concept and would appear to solve a part of a nation’s jobs problem; but the objective isn’t the same thing as a proof, nor is it necessarily beneficial. The jobs issue isn’t whether the US or the UK gets its old jobs back but whether it can create new, good and productive jobs that enable a superior and competitive economy. If your leaders focus on the wrong approaches and policies, then you are not likely to reach the desired goals; it’s sort of a ‘cause - effect’ thing.

Immigration: The Brits were motivated by immigration issues and concerns. Some of these related to jobs, to security, to social change, and to other diverse factors that evoked a Brexit-solution. Just as there are issues that share a name and a conceptual arena, there is little comparison between the UK’s and the US’s immigration realities. So this would call the equivalence of the two realities into question, except perhaps with respect to the level of fear evoked, or the anger, or name your emotional state.

Maybe one of the sub-issues around immigration is a key factor in both, that is meaningfully the same.

Borders: The “Protecting ‘Our’ Borders” theme differs not some much in sentiments as in realities. The UK’s borders are currently defined and operated within the context of the EU’s policies that allow (even promote) the ability to move between EU nations more or less unimpeded outside of the security processes that apply across the EU. The US’s borders are managed under US policies and processes, which is what Brexit would bring about in the UK (more or less). So the US’s view isn’t to have the control but to apply a different level and nature of control. Brexit voters want to stop ‘outside’ immigration that threatens jobs, security (see next), culture, or ???. The notion of being invaded by a huge number of illegal aliens doesn’t appear to be the motivating factor that the influx of people from Central and South America into the US is and has been for 30-plus years (or longer). The impetuous for immigration to the UK would include economic and social reasons that are also applicable to the US’s but the situations and origins of US’s illegal immigration problem not identical.  The solutions for each are certainly not the same either in terms of methods, costs, consequences and even goals.

Security: Are UK security concerns and US security concerns fundamentally the same. The goal is of course. In terms of issues/problems related to immigration, the UK and the US face different realities in many ways. The answer can thus have the goal of Security, but that is the goal it isn’t the policies or processes that will achieve the goal. Will Brexit improve the UK’s security? We can be certain that it either will or it won’t, but that outcome is not a forgone fact it is a to be determined result with all its corresponding consequences to the how it works and works out. In the US, the same laws of physics cause and effect will operate. What we do will begin the process that turns into effects that follow, but if you think you have an answer without a well-defined plan and approach is just more “wishful thinking” (which isn’t actual ‘thinking’ in the realm of reality).

Culture:  I don’t know how much a factor the “culture of the UK” was in their Brexit voting, but I am sure that it played some role for some voters. Anyone who thinks that the UK’s culture and the US’s culture are equivalent in voting for Brexit to the US’s election voting will have make the case that they are the same; unless it’s nothing more than a ‘Keep the UK for Britons’ equivalent to ‘Keep America for Americans’ another meaningless slogan that supports other objectives.

Government Leadership: “The Elites” versus “The Non-Elites”
Now here is an issue that seems to resonate in a significant group within both the UK’s and US’s populations. I emphasize with the public’s dissatisfaction, disgust, and frustration with the politicians. However once again not clear that the situations are the same for the UK and the US. It is true that the political leaders in both nations are elected by the public. They are elected from the different parties that put forth candidates in their elections. There are many more than the two dominant US parties in the UK; but those who win are elected by their voters. Now one might argue that if your government (US or UK or ??) is run by an elite-class of politicians that you choose them. If these elite politicians aren’t looking out for you, then why did you elect them exactly? If you didn’t or don’t like them, then why do you keep electing them over and over? Perhaps they weren’t ‘elite’ when you elected them, but become corrupted into an ‘elite’ once they got into power. If this is true, why would the next set of politicians that you elect not be subject to the same ‘elite’ corruption?

Wait! Is it that the ‘establishment’ politicians are ‘elite’ in regards to some other criteria? Are they folks who see themselves as ‘smart’ and represent a class of people who think they are better than everyone else, and deserve to govern? But why did you elect them?  Now personally, I take argument with many people (perhaps the vast majority) that think politicians are ‘smart’ or ‘elite’. If anything, I think that it is much more likely that we (and the British) have lowered our expectations, or requirements and our desires for individuals who might be considered some of the ‘best and brightest’ to serve as our representatives.  I sometimes contemplate whether I think the US was served better by individuals elected that were ‘just your average’ person or who were ‘a cut above’ the norm. I don’t see our American Founding Fathers as simple, average men that were just good folk like everyone else. I would contend that the issue isn’t whether a politician is a member of the ‘elite’/’establishment’/party or not but whether they present sound, reasoned, and productive policies that have some basis in achieving benefits for the nation and people.

A Physics Problem: Looking at the Brexit decision and viewing upcoming American election, there is a lesson to be learned from looking at these events as a physics problem. There is a problem and you are seeking a solution, an answer to your needs. To successfully solve the problem, you can’t choose what you want the answer to be unless all you want and expect is to express your opinion. If you actually want the world, the reality, to change into what you want then you need to do much more. You need to understand the problem, and this is not easy but it is unavoidable. You need to define what you want to happen and how that will end in some physical conditions and circumstances that achieve your goals. Oh yes, and you need to define your goals. I don’t mean just say: “I want” this or that to be, but to explain how the goal can be determined to have been reached.  You have to deal with all the things that exist where we are now, where we are to go, how we are going to get there, and when do we know that we are on track to reaching those goals. This is not the work of emotions. You don’t get there just because you are angry or afraid.

Now for the part of the physics lesson that you won’t like at all. You cannot go back to when things were the way you want them to be. You can’t go back there because you don’t or can’t control all the variables that would be required. You can’t go back there because you won’t accept the cost to do it, if you could even find a way. And here’s the killer, you can’t go back to then because it never was the way you ‘want’ it to be again.

So learn to deal with the laws of physic, cause and effect, and nothing stays the same. The key to our success as a nation (or any nation’s) is to do what Americans have done before, seek to do it better than we have done so far or that anyone else has done to date.