A Strange & Unexpected Effect of COVID Vaccine-Hesitancy

Yet another milestone has been made in the US’s efforts to take control of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US. The supply of vaccines is now exceeding the demand. Now, there are undoubtedly some locations in the US where there is still a bit more demand than supply; but there are lots of places where there is supply and not nearly enough demand. This would sound good except for a couple of facts. The demand isn’t lacking because there are not sufficient numbers of unvaccinated citizens in many of those under-demand areas, rather it means there is a phenomena of self-induced under-demand which is referred to as “Vaccine Hesitancy”. This does not mean that there is only one contributing factor to Vaccine Hesitancy, but the end result is the same. Vaccine Hesitancy presents an obstacle to achieving or reaching the goal of “herd-immunity” for the nation.

Now, everyone has been hearing about the reasons for achieving herd-immunity for over a year now. But in any national effort related to a public policy there are going to be some who will object or refuse to support or comply with it. This is not unique to the COVID-19 vaccine. There are and have been people who oppose vaccination efforts and policies for previous vaccines. Some have religious objections, some are suspicious of the government or businesses promoting the vaccines, and there are plenty of conspiracy theories that are promoted for various reasons like generating revenue for the theories advocates. All these factors are at play with the COVID-19. But there is a new or certainly much less common factor with the COVID vaccines: political alignment. There is a significant portion of the Republican party’s constituency what is refusing to get vaccinated. Some of these Republicans are going to also overlap with the religious sub-group, some with those suspicious of the government or big Pharma, and some are entangled with various conspiracy theories. However, most appear to be refusing or rejecting for a political, ideological, or emotional reason.

Taken in total these different population segments appear to represent about 30% of the US population, where 5% are in a “Not Sure” segment and may or may not change their current decision of not acting to get vaccinated. If we hope that most of the “Not Sure” / undecided comes around, we have 25% of the US population at risk of being in the “No” column. This part of the Vaccine Hesitancy group are not really hesitant they are rejecting and refusing to overtly support the public policy and the herd-immunity goal. This doesn’t mean that there is no way to reach herd-immunity but rather that the process whereby it is achieved is different with different consequences and implications. It is these consequences and implications which are interesting to consider and assess. Consider for instance that herd-immunity is not a new concept, it is not dependent upon a vaccination approach as a public policy, and it can be achieved without our even knowing that there is a way to get to herd-immunity with less harm to ourselves and our society. Herd-immunity has been achieved many times in the past, but at great loss to various populations.

Now don’t look at COVID-19 through the lens of what the healthcare and government experts and leaders are advocating. Instead, look at what it means to the different groups if herd-immunity is not achieved. Are the outcomes to each group the same? Suppose you were a critical thinker and objective analyst that set aside the moral and humanitarian consequences, what happens to different groups? After you have estimated and assessed the results for each population sub-group would then there are differential implications not just to those groups but even to what decisions you might want to present as options.

If 25% of the population is rejecting vaccination and half of them are Republican men and their families then that 12.5% of the US’s 330+M citizens; that is 41.25M people. If half of them eventually become infected with COVID because herd-immunity is not achieved, the virus continues to spread to the uninfected, and they hold to their partisan position of refusing to vaccinate for political reasons that is 20.7M infected people. With a mortality rate of 1.0% we will have 207K more US deaths.

That 207K US deaths is just from the Republican aligned part of the US population. The religious sub-group that isn’t overlapping with them will have additional deaths, so will the anti-vaccine sub-group, and the conspiracy theorists. This is just a little objective critical thinking leaving out any consideration of the morality or humane aspect of these results. These 207K deaths also do not account for those who will suffer other consequences from their infection but not die from COVID.

But this is also just the start. There are implications beyond just 207K deaths. Each death will have consequences. There are implication upon implication that will flow forward from these 207K lost citizens.

Absent the emotional, moral, and humanitarian considerations, it would seem this is not a prudent decision because of one’s political views, ideology, or party. That Republican leaders (not all) are contributors to the Vaccine Hesitancy phenomena would seem to be self-defeating and doesn’t show much competency in forward looking leadership.

Adding consideration of the moral facet of how the US deals with the virus, factoring in humanitarian aspects of these consequences, and remembering our societal value of human life; there has undoubtedly been a huge misstep by the Republican party concerning it’s reaction and in-actions regarding supporting the COVID-19 Vaccination effort and goals. They may not be able to prevent the nation from achieving herd-immunity, but at what cost?

This brief assessment doesn’t even begin to look at all the other implications and consequences, which ought to give everyone involved vaccinated, unvaccinated, or undecided/unsure a reason to pause and ask: “What else happens that has import to me, my family, my community, my state, my country, and yes even your party."